The Property Market Cycle
Baker Advocates · Market Intelligence
The 18.6‑Year Property Cycle
Most property investors have no real sense of where the market sits in its long run cycle. They buy when confidence is high and prices already reflect it, which is often the point of greatest risk, not the point of greatest opportunity.
Property tends to move through a repeating pattern about 18.6 years long: growth, a mid cycle pause, a late stage rush, then a correction and recovery. Knowing which phase the market is in will not tell you exactly what happens next, but it does tell you how much risk you are taking on right now. That is the point of this clock. It gives you the context to make a more informed decision, whether that means moving with confidence or holding back until the risk eases.
Worth being clear about what this is. It is Baker Advocates' own reading of a long run theory, not a prediction and not an automatic signal. Winner's Curse does not mean a crash is guaranteed, and the years shown for each phase are indicative only. Property cycles describe a historical pattern, they do not run to a fixed schedule.
Current phase
Capital City Growth — Annualised
Common Questions
Does Winner's Curse mean a crash is coming?
No. It flags the stretch where speculation and leverage typically run hottest, historically the riskiest time to buy at full price. It does not mean a crash will happen on a set date.
Is this financial advice?
No. It is general information based on a long run cycle theory. Talk to us about your own finances, strategy and risk tolerance before making a decision.
How often is this updated?
Every quarter. We refresh the capital city growth figures from HTAG Intelligence and review where the cycle sits with each update.
Where does the cycle theory come from?
Phillip J. Anderson's 18.6 year Property and Share Market Economics research, which we apply to our own read of the current Australian market.
Wondering what this means for your next purchase?
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