The broken sea-change dream, creating opportunity.
Torquay's Break-Even Sellers: What the Data Says the Headlines Don't
By Troy, Director & Buyers Agent, Baker Advocates
Walk through Torquay's listings this autumn and you'll notice something the glossy coastal marketing won't tell you: a meaningful share of the homes for sale belong to people who bought near the top of the market and now just want their money back.
It's not a hunch. It's written all through the data. And the most useful part of the story isn't where prices have been. It's where they're quietly heading next.
The property price sea-change surge
When the country went looking for space in 2020, Torquay was one of the biggest winners on the Victorian coast. The typical house sold for around $906,000 in January 2020. By the end of 2022, that figure had peaked at roughly $1.56 million a 72% surge in under three years.
That kind of run rewrites a town's psychology. Buyers who paid $1.4–1.55 million in 2022 and early 2023 didn't feel like they'd overpaid. They felt like they'd bought into a market that only moved one way.
Then the tide went out and left Torquay Vendors High and Dry
It didn't. From that late-2022 peak, Torquay's typical house price fell close to 16%, bottoming near $1.31 million around the middle of 2025. Over a three-year window, prices are still down more than 10%.
For most owners, a paper dip is irrelevant they're not selling. But for the cohort who bought at or near the peak and now need to move (a job relocation, a change of plans, a loan that's become uncomfortable at higher rates), that decline is very real. Selling today means accepting something close to — or below — what they paid. That is the textbook definition of a break-even market, and the supporting signals confirm sellers are under pressure:
Vendor discounting has pushed past 4% firmly in low-demand territory.
Homes are taking around 45 days to sell, noticeably slower than nearby Geelong suburbs at under four weeks.
There's more than four months of stock sitting on the market.
Buyer attention, on HtAG's popularity index, is sitting at the floor a 1 out of 10.
When attention is low, stock is high, and vendors are discounting, the negotiating power sits squarely with the buyer.
The part most sellers anchored to 2022 have missed
Here's where the data does something the rear-view mirror can't. While sellers are still emotionally pegged to their 2022 purchase price, the correction that scared everyone has, by the numbers, already ended.
Torquay's typical house price has risen for eight consecutive months off the mid-2025 low. It's now around $1.37 million up about 4.5% from the trough, 3.7% over the past year, and still 122% higher than it was a decade ago. The long-run track record is intact; the dip was cyclical, not structural.
Put those two facts together and you get the opportunity. The motivated vendor trying to exit "flat" is, in many cases, selling into the start of the next upswing not the end of a decline. The fear that's pricing their home today is describing a market that no longer exists.
What this means if you're buying or selling
If you're a buyer, Torquay right now is a rare combination: genuine vendor motivation, low competition, and a price trend that has already turned. The window where you can negotiate hard and buy into early momentum doesn't stay open long. It tends to close quietly, before the headlines catch up.
If you're a seller who doesn't have to move, the data makes a strong case for patience. Eight months of consistent gains, a recovering rental market, and a town with a 122% ten-year record are not the conditions in which you want to crystallise a loss out of fear.
The real lesson behing this market move
Markets get priced by emotion at the turns both at the top and at the bottom. In 2022, optimism convinced people Torquay could only rise. In 2025, the same emotional logic in reverse convinced people it could only fall. Neither was true.
The only thing in this story actually looking forward is the data. Everyone else is looking backward at what they paid.
That gap — between what a market feels like and what its numbers are doing is exactly where we work.
FAQ’s - Torquay Property Market
Q: What is the median house price in Torquay in 2026?
A: Torquay's typical house price is around $1.37 million as of April 2026 (HtAG Analytics).
Q: How far have Torquay house prices fallen from their peak?
A: They peaked near $1.56 million at the end of 2022 and fell about 16% to a mid-2025 low of roughly $1.31 million. As of April 2026 they sit about 12% below the peak.
Q: Is the Torquay property market recovering?
A: Yes. The typical house price has risen for eight consecutive months off the mid-2025 low up about 4.5% from the trough and 3.7% over the past year.
Q: Is now a good time to buy in Torquay?
A: The data shows an unusual mix of motivated vendors, low buyer competition, and a price trend that has already turned upward conditions buyers often look for. Always seek advice for your own circumstances.